A range of advanced modelling approaches has been used so far to assess the impact of global change on biodiversity and ecosystems.
The project ECOCHANGE proposes to improve some of these approaches by:
* integrating different modelling approaches currently in use (niche-based, dynamic, dispersal, etc.), and by developing robust methodologies to estimate uncertainties associated with these projections.
* generating required new data (paleo & migration) by using innovative DNA-based approaches, and global change scenarios.
* testing niche conservatism and temporal evolution of biological communities.
* using the new data in improved and integrated models to make projections more robust and realistic.
* testing these approaches in case study areas and expanding the current projections to all of Europe.
EcoChange is divided into nine “activities”. The main scientific work is done within Activity 1 to 6. Activities 7 to 9 complement the project by providing dissemination, training and management.
* Activity 1: Assembling available data and complementary sampling
* Activity 2: New DNA-based paleo data
* Activity 3: New DNA-based dispersion data
* Activity 4: Niche and community stability
* Activity 5: Improved modelling and uncertainty assessment
* Activity 6: Integration, projections, conservation and ecosystem services
Our group at UNIL is primarily involved in Activities 4 and 5 and secondarily in Activities 1 and 6. The group of Jérôme Goudet at UNIL/DEE is involved in Activity 2.