What future for models of future species distributions?

What future for models of future species distributions?


Dates: 23 February 2018


Place: Evora, Portugal, session within the IBS Climate Change Biogeography conference


Session organiser: Antoine Guisan


Invited speakers: Laura Pollock,  Ana Csergo, Jennifer Sunday, Phoebe  Zarnetske, Gurutzeta Guillera-Aroita and Frederic Guillaume.



Within the daily theme “Looking into the future”, the speakers of this session "What future for models of future species distributions?" presented a variety of ecological data, biogeographical approaches and modelling challenges that are needed to improve future forecasts of species distributions under climate change. These renowned or promising scientists from various continents showcased examples of the development and application of advanced modelling approaches that combine data and theory from as diverse fields as physical geography, physiology, ecology, demography, phylogenetics, and evolutionary biology, as well as combinations of statistical and mechanistic approaches to niche, habitat suitability, population dynamics, dispersal, biotic interactions, and community modelling. This included developments in macrophysiology and thermal tolerance of species, the mechanistic role of climate upon species interactions, eco-evolutionary models of biodiversity, linking population dynamics with habitat suitability and range structure, climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions, spatio-dynamic modelling of communities, and modelling of species distributions, range dynamics and communities under imperfect detection.



Plenary symposia session program

Full conference program



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